摘要
利用河北省南电网提供的2000-2006年逐日最大电力负荷资料，分析了日最大电力负荷的变化规律。以石家庄市为例，采用相关分析方法，分年逐月分析了日最大电力负荷与对应6个气象因子的相关性，得出不同时段电力负荷的主要气象影响因子；分析了6～9月和11月受气温影响显著月电力负荷的1℃效应量、3～8月10mm以上降水量对电力负荷的影响变化率；采用多元回归的方法分时间段建立了最大电力负荷的气象预测方程，加上逐年电力负荷变化趋势项即可做电力负荷预测预报。
The variation characteristics of daily electrical loads from 2000 to 2006 in Hebei are analyzed. Taking Shijiazhuang as an example, a series of correlative indexes between peak loads and meteorological elements are presented, such as maximum, minimum and average temperatures, as well as average relative humidity, precipitation, etc. The results show that the meteorological elements affecting directly electric loads vary with time. An analysis is made of the variation of the electric loads when temperature rise 1 ℃ from June to September and in November, and the variation of the electric loads when precipitation is above 10 mm/d from March to August. The weather-based electric load forecast equation is set up according to meteorological conditions.
出处
《气象科技》
2008年第6期795-800,共6页
Meteorological Science and Technology
基金
河北省气象局"精细化气象预报与电力负荷预测研究"课题资助
关键词
电力负荷
气象影响因子
预测模型
electric load, meteorological influencing factor, forecasting model
