摘要
气候是影响能源消费的一个重要因子,目前该领域的研究仅局限于少数敏感问题和个别发达国家,研究结果尚欠系统性和普适性。文章总结了20世纪50年代以来,国内外学者在研究温度与能源消费关系时经常使用的度日、度时、度月、度季、采暖日数、采暖度日变率、采暖期长度变率和采暖指数等指标,阐述了这些指标的含义、计算方法、适用范围及其特点,并回顾了在研究气候变化对能源消费的关系方面所取得的成果和尚待研究的问题。在发达国家,能源消费与温度的关系非常显著,许多学者对这一问题进行了深入的研究,其中度日是最常用的指标之一。度日计算的前提是基础温度和日平均温度的确定,其中基础温度往往是根据能源供应、人体生理需求、经济水平以及温度变化特点而人为规定的,也有一些学者尝试用数学方法求得;日平均温度的计算方法主要有4种,国外学者经常采用的是取日最高气温和最低气温算术平均值的方法。此外,一些研究也提出了几种简便的度日计算方法。能源消费与温度的关系往往因研究区域的范围、人口以及能源价格而变,因此一些学者提出了人口加权、面积加权、价格调整等度日指标的调整方法。气候对能源消费影响的评价模式主要有两种,即能量平衡模式和统计模式,其中统计模式是目前使用最为广泛的一种,已由简单的?
Climate is an important factor affecting energy consumption. At present, researches concerning this subject are limited in serval sensitive problems and in few developed countries. This paper defines the meanings, calculation methods, applied fields and characteres of the indexes, such as degree day, degree hour, degree month, degree season, heating day, heating index and so on, which have been frequently used by foreign and domestic scholars in the researches of relation between temperature and energy consumption since 1950s. It reviews the great achievements in the researches of relationship between climate change and energy consumption and also pointes out some problems that need further study. In the developed countries, the relationship of energy consumption and temperature is very significant. Many scholars have made a lot of researches on this problem, in which degree-day is one of the most frequently used index. The calculation of degree-day is usually based on the definiation of basic temperature and average temperature in the day. The basic temperature is often calculated according to energy supply, physiological demand of human body, the level of economic development and the character of temperature changes. There are mainly four methods for the calculation of average day temperature. The most popular way is to get the average of the highest temperature and the lowest one. In addition, some convenient ways have been put forward to get degree-day. The relationship between energy consumption and temperature often varies because of the different region, population and energy price. So some experts come up with some adjusting ways for calculating degree-day index. There are mainly two models on climate affecting energy consumption, namely, the energy balance model and the statistical model. The latter is being used most widely at present and has developed from the simple relevant analysis to comprehensive predication models.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2004年第6期125-130,共6页
Resources Science
基金
河南省自然科学基金项目"能源消费对气候变化的响应研究"(编号:994071000)。
关键词
气候
能源消费
评价指标
评价模式
Climate
Energy consumption
Assessment index
Assessment model
