摘要
建立了一套既适用于对预报员降水预报评估，又适用于对数值预报模式降水预报评估的客观检验方法。从对１９９６年７－９月检验的结果分析表明预报员对大雨预报Ｔｓ评分高于ＨＬＡＦＳ，并且除西北地区外，其它区的２４小时大雨预报都超过气候概率，表现为大于０的技巧评分。预报员和ＨＬＡＦＳ对大雨预报的漏报率多于空报率，而对小雨和中雨的预报相反，两者都是空报多于漏报。预报员对西北地区的降水预报漏报较多。
set of objective methods for assessing rainfall forecast was designed. It can be applied to either the forecasts of weather forecaster, or those from numerical weather prediction models. On analyzing the rainfall forecasts during the period from July to September 1996, it was shown that, for the forecasts of torrential rain, the TS score of 24 hour forecasts, it is even higher than the corresponding climate probability except in the Northwestern China region, presenting a positive skill. Both forecasters and HLAFS produced more ' point over'(PO) than ' Not Hit' (NH) medium and light rainfall. Furthermore, forecasters produced more PO forecasts for the rainfall over the Northwestern China.
出处
《气象》
CSCD
北大核心
1998年第1期47-52,共6页
Meteorological Monthly
