摘要
2006年底新疆气象局引进了《亚洲沙尘暴数值模式系统》,并对该系统进行本地化试验。2007年初该系统开始业务运行,运行情况良好。为了更好地了解该模式的各种预报指标,提高新疆沙尘天气的预报准确率,本文对2007年春、冬季时节该模式输出的沙尘预报结果分别进行了主、客观检验。并从检验结果可以看到,沙尘模式的预报能力非常强,区域预报有无检验一般60%以上,空报率也比较高,一般都在30%以上。但总的来说该模式对于强冷空气造成的大范围的沙尘天气有很好的预报能力,在新疆尤其是沙尘天气的高发时段,可发挥该模式的作用。本文对其使用的主客观检验方法进行了详尽的描述。
The CUCSDust, an Asia sandstorm forecasting model, was introduced by Xinjiang Meteorological Bureau in the end of 2006, and carry out the localization testing for this system. The dust occurred with high frequency in spring and low frequency in winter in Xinjiang. In this paper, we put up the subjective and objective test for the dust forecast of spring and winter in 2007 from the model＇s output. The result showed the forecasting ability of model to be better, and the testing accuracy is above 60% for the regional forecasting presence dust or absence dust. On the whole to say, CUCSDust model has good forecasting ability for the large-scale dust storm weather caused by movement of strong cold air, especially in the period of time dust storm occurred frequently the model could play a preferable role. At the same time, we also described the technical methods in the test and the test results on detail.
出处
《沙漠与绿洲气象》
2008年第5期24-27,共4页
Desert and Oasis Meteorology
