摘要
根据我省近半个世纪森林火灾资料的周期分析，结果表明：（１）年度火灾次数存在１７ａ为一周期；春季火灾次数有１７ａ，７ａ，１９ａ，２ａ四种周期；秋季火灾次数存在６ａ，１１ａ，ａ，１５ａ四种周期；（２）１９８３４上以来我省森林火灾逐年减少，用磷以理论的ＧＭ（１，１）时间响应函数来描述和预测是可行的，精度是要求比较好；（３）１９９０年以来我省森林火灾出现历史最低值。
According to analysis of semicentury's forest fire materials in Jilin Province, results showed: ①A cycle of year fire frequences is 17-year. Four kinds of cycles of forest fire frequences in spring have 17, 7, 19, 2 (year). Four kinds of cycles of forest fire frequences in autumn have 6, 11, 4, 15 (year) . ②Since 1983, forest fire times are reducing year by year. The above shows the describe and forecast of time resPonse function with grey theory are right, and its accurate demands are good. ③Since 1990, forest fire times emerge the lowest in the history, these achievement mainly should atribute to fireproof device and capital increase, which perfected forest fireprcof technology.
基金
林业部重点科研课题
关键词
周期分析
时间响应函数
森林火灾
Cycle analysis, Time response function, Forest fire
