摘要
根据桃开花对气候条件的要求及桃始花期资料,分析得出日平均气温稳定通过10℃初日与桃始花期基本吻合,相关系数为0.985 3(n=15).在历史气候资料基础上,运用周期分析方法对日平均气温稳定通过10℃初日进行预报.结合当年的天气特点进行上海地区桃始花期预报,2002～2004年预报平均误差为2.3 d.
Analyzing the weather conditions necessary for peach flowering and the data about the date of peach flowering,the paper finds that the first date for the average daily temperature to steadily pass 10℃ basically corresponds with the beginning date of peach flowering and their correlation coefficient is 0. 985 3 （n=15）. It adopts the periodic analysis to predict the first date for the daily temperature to steadily pass 10℃ according to the historical climatic data. It forecasts the beginning date of peach flowering in Shanghai on the basis of the specific weathers in the years in question and the average forecasting error of the beginning dates of peach flowering stands at 2.3 days in 2002～2004.
出处
《西北植物学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第9期1876-1878,共3页
Acta Botanica Boreali-Occidentalia Sinica
基金
上海市科技兴农重点攻关项目(2002-4-4-4)
关键词
桃始花期
周期分析
预报
beginning date of peach flowering
periodic analysis
forecast
