摘要
台风灾害是浙江省主要的自然灾害之一,平均每年有3.3个台风对浙江省造成影响。以历史灾情资料和气象要素(致灾因子)作为灾害指标,利用基于信息扩散原理的风险评估模型,对浙江省台风灾害及其对农业造成的影响进行了模糊风险评估,并在GIS技术支持下,直观地给出了浙江省台风大风和台风暴雨的空间分布特征。研究结果表明:浙江省台风灾害存在明显的空间差异,台风大风发生的概率由沿海岛屿和沿海地区向内陆减小,台风大风高风险区位于沿海岛屿,台风暴雨的高风险区在浙东南沿海一带。台风灾害对浙江省农业影响风险值较高的地区主要位于沿海岛屿和东部沿海地区,当风险水平为30%时,舟山、台州、温州和宁波等地受灾概率大约为2-4年一遇,为全省高风险敏感区。
Zhejiang is a province located in the southeast coast of China. Typhoon is one of the primary natural disasters causing serious damage to agriculture and utilities of this province which occurred 3.3 times on an average per year. According to the hiotorical disaster data and weather data, typhoon hazard and its effect on the agriculture were analyzed by means of the method of risk assessment based on information diffusion theory. Then, the spatial distribution maps of typhoon gale and typhoon rainstorm were outlined by using geographic information system. The result shows that the risk level of typhoon gale decreases from the offshore islands and coastal areas to the inland areas, the extreme wind speed near the typhoon center is above 32ms^-1 and occurs at the offshore islands; the highest probability of the rainstorm occurs at the southeast coastal regions ; the regions with higher occurrence of the damage to agriculture are located in offshore islands and east coast of Zhejiang, such as Zhoushan, Taizhou, Wenzhou and Ningbo, where the probability of damage range from 0.25 to 0.5 when 30% risk level were considered.
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第5期113-119,共7页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
浙江省气象局重大科技攻关项目(2006zd005)
关键词
台风
风险评估
信息扩散
农业
浙江省
typhoon
risk assessment
infonnation diffusion
agriculture
Zhejiang Province
