摘要
利用Bass创新扩散模型对中国移动电话和固定电话业务市场进行扩散和替代分析,利用拟合度最优的方法得出中国两类语音业务市场的用户峰值,并且推测出达到峰值所需要的时间,最后得出中国语音业务市场的最大普及率。
Since the 1990s, vocal service market has developed rapidly in China. Mobile and Fixed telephony show a different trend of development. An empirical analysis of the mechanism diffusion and substitution dynamism inside China＇s Mobile and Fixed telephony is attempted by utilizing Bass diffusion model. Finally, the user peak of two vocal service markets, needed to reach the peak and the maximum penetration of the voice service market were got.
出处
《西北大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2008年第6期127-129,共3页
Journal of Northwest University：Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition
