摘要
就天然气井喷后形成的可燃性气云爆炸事故进行风险分析而言,TNT当量法存在对爆源附近超压预测偏高、对较远位置处的预测偏低、只能提供超压不涉及冲量等不足。多能法基于受限空间体积的观念使其比基于点源的TNT当量法具有更符合蒸气云爆炸实际情形的优势,该方法兼顾了超压和正相压力波持续时间。概率方程同样具有既考虑超压也考虑冲量因素的能力,同时该模型提供了与超压以及伤害百分比之间的转换关系。因此,将多能法与概率方程结合无疑将提高风险分析的准确度和方便性。具体应用时首先确定伤害标准,然后根据概率方程将伤害程度转换为超压和冲量,最后依照多能法将超压等换算为安全距离。实例的结果表明,在同样的伤害准则下该方法得到的安全距离比用TNT当量法得到的更合理。
For risk analysis of Vapor Cloud Explosion （VCE） accident caused by blowout of natural gas well, the TNT equivalence model suffers from some shortcomings, such as, that it can be used to determine only overpressure but not impulse, while the overpressure is usually too high as near VCE or too low as far away from VCE center. Multi-energy model based on the concept of congestion space is much closer to practical scenario of VCE than TNT equivalence model based on point-source explosion. Besides, both overpressure and duration time of positive phase overpressure can be obtained by using multi-energy model. Likewise, not only overpressure but also impulse can be considered in the probit equation model; meanwhile, an interfaces to＇ convert overpressure and impulse to percentage injured according to a certain criterion is provided by the probit equation model. So, the combination of multi-energy model with probit equation model would make risk analysis much more precise and convenient. In applications, one should firstly specify injury standards then convert it to overpressure and impulse using the probit equation and finally obtain the safety distance using the multi-energy model. Results of a case study show that under the same injury standards, the safety distance given by models based on the multi-energy model and the probit equation model is more reasonable than that provided by TNT equivalence model.
出处
《科技导报》
CAS
CSCD
2008年第21期43-47,共5页
Science & Technology Review
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2006CB705800)
中国石油重大科技专项(07-02Z-01)
关键词
多能法
概率方程
井喷
蒸气云爆炸
后果分析
multi-energy model
probit equation
blowout
vapor cloud explosion
consequence analysis
