摘要
气候舒适度是影响旅游地开发的重要因素,旅游气候的舒适性及持续时间,直接影响到旅游季节的长短及客流量的年内变化。本文利用近30年气候资料,对海口市旅游气候舒适性进行了评价,划分了旅游活动的适宜性等级和时段分布;结合近3年入境旅游和国内旅游客流量的年内变化,计算了客流量月指数并划分了旅游活动的淡旺季;在对气候舒适度与若干虚拟因子数值化的基础上,采用OLS方法建立了客流量月指数与气候舒适度的相关性,结果显示：①入境游客年内变化主要受气候影响,入境旅游月指数气候弹性系数1.3253%;②国内旅游不仅受气候舒适性影响,还受7月~8月暑假以及2月春节的影响,客流量月指数气候弹性系数为1.0200%。本项研究为海口市客流量年内变化预测、旅游地开发、景区管理提供了科学依据。
Degree of climate comfort is a key factor for development of tourist locations, and it directly affects the length of the tourist season and the number of tourists per month. Based on 30 years of climatic data for the city of Haikou, the degree of climate comfort was analyzed using THI and WCI, along with the grades of fitness and the temporal distribution. The climate is very comfortable in December, January, and February, which is the best time for tourism. The climate is relatively comfortable in March and November. The climate is rather uncomfortable in April, May, September and October. The climate is uncomfortable from June to August, because it is too hot. The monthly variation of international tourists and domestic tourists in the last 3 years is used to categorize the low season and high season of tourism and calculate the monthly index. In order to analyze the relationship of climate comfort and monthly variation of tourists in Haikou, the grades of THI are quantified, with the grades ＂e, d, c, b, A, B, C, D, E,＂ changed into＂-4, -3, -2, - 1, 0, - 1, -2, -3, -4＂. Based on the numerical values for climate comfort and dummy variables, the correlation of monthly index and climate comfort was determined using OLS. The results show that January, April, November and December are busy seasons for international tourism, and the slow season is from June to September. The variation of international tourists throughout the year is mainly affected by climate, and the monthly index of climatic coefficient elasticity is 1.3253%. The busy seasons for domestic tourism are January, March, November and December, and the slow seasons are June and September. Domestic tourism in Haikou is affected not only by climate comfort, but also by the spring festival in February and the summer holidays in July and August. The monthly index of climatic coefficient elasticity is 1.0200 %. This paper provides a scientific basis for forecasting seasonal tourist numbers in Haikou and the surrounding areas and exploiting tourism resources.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第11期1754-1759,共6页
Resources Science
基金
国家自然科学基金(编号:40271052)
陕西师范大学研究生创新基金(编号:2007CXS013)
关键词
气候舒适度
客流量月变化
相关性分析
海口市
Degree of climate comfort
Monthly variation of tourists
Correlative analysis
Haikou City
