摘要
我国工业经济周期显著的特点之一是煤炭、电力及下游高耗能工业的大起大落。电力产业链是以煤炭工业为起点,电力工业为纽带,向钢铁、电解铝、电石等下游工业辐射而构成相对独立的产业链群系统。对电力产业链主要基础工业和工业经济在1985—2005年期间的三个周期上的增长率数据进行直观比较,发现它们在长期发展速度、波动幅度和波动关联性等方面存在此消彼长的关系。协整分析证实它们之间存在逆向长期均衡关系。这样的波动关系说明,产业链的扩张必然存在与工业经济不相容的动力来源,强化了工业经济传统增长方式所固有的资源路线。逆向长期均衡波动关系是三个因素相互耦合的结果:政府的有意推动;轻工业发展的边际效应缩小;我国资源环境定价过低。
One of characters of China industry economy＇ recurrent fluctuations is that coal, electricity and the downstream industries have been growing up and down greatly. Electricity industry chain （EIC） is the system that contains industry clusters from coal, through electricity and to downstream industries such as steel, calcium, etc. The comparisons between rates of main industries of EIC and industry economy on three stages from 1985 to 2005 show that their rates, fluctuations＇ strength and relationship have been running on the contrast ways. Such facts confirm the converse co-integration relationship found in co-integration analyses. The results show that expansions of EIC must be driven by different factors from ones drive industry economy, and roads of economy expansion based on resources have been widened. Desires of governments, weakening marginal effects and too low prices of resources product converse co-integration relationship between EIC and industry.
出处
《中国工业经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2008年第10期53-63,共11页
China Industrial Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"中国电力产业链周期性波动机理及系统控制研究"(批准号70671042)
北京哲学社会科学规划重点项目"北京市‘能源-产业-环境’协调发展的经济分析模型与战略途径研究"(批准号07AfJG170)
关键词
电力产业链
工业经济
逆向均衡
electricity industry chain （EIC）
industry economy
inverse equilibrium
