摘要
在电力系统规划及电力市场发展与竞争中,认识电力生产的周期波动性有着重要的意义。以灰色系统理论为基础,以发电量作为研究对象,提出一种灰色自回归模型,定量研究了中国电力生产波动周期,同时附以GM(1,1)模型对电力生产的动态波动周期验证,结果显示中国电力生产的波动周期为8a左右,并以此为基础定性分析了中国电力生产波动周期的特征,这对研究中国电力工业未来的发展趋势具有重要的指导意义。
During planning of power system, developing and competition of power market, there are important meanings to know the cycle fluctuation of power production. On the basis of grey system theory, power generating was regarded as the research object, and a grey autoregression model was presented, in which fluctuating period of power production was studied quantitatively. Using GM （ 1, 1 ） model, dynamic fluctuation period of power production is demonstrated clearly. Result shows fluctuating cycle of power production is about 8 years in China. By analyzing curve of fluctuation, the periodic characteristics of national power production are presented qualitatively, which has important directive significance in studying development trend of Chinese power industry in the future.
出处
《中国电力》
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第9期63-66,共4页
Electric Power
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(70473037)
江苏省自然科学基金资助项目(BK2003211)
关键词
灰色系统
灰色自回归
电力生产
波动周期
grey system
grey autoregression
power production
fluctuating period
