摘要
文章应用博弈论研究中国-东盟贸易自由化问题。首先通过静态博弈模型分析了中国应当采取"合作"和"首先行动"策略的原因。其次,分别建立了两阶段和三阶段动态博弈模型,阐释了中国-东盟之间需要签订书面协议的重要性,并应用关税博弈模型说明了自由贸易区内中国和东盟双方应以零关税率为合作的最终目标。最后,根据实际数据对理论模型进行了分析和验证。
By applying game theory, this paper analyzes the problem of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area. Firstly, the reasons why China should choose the strategies of ＂cooperation＂ and ＂first move＂ are analyzed by static game. Secondly, two-stage and three-stage dynamic games are presented to shed light on the importance of signing contract. Furthermore, the tariff game is introduced to show that zero tariff rate should be the final goal within the free trade area in the long run. Finally, the real data are applied to analyze and test the theoretic models.
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2008年第9期47-51,共5页
Journal of International Trade
基金
国家自然科学基金(70571034
70671055)
江苏省高校哲学社会科学基金(06SJB630008)的资助
关键词
中国-东盟自由贸易区
博弈分析
纳什均衡
关税税率
China-ASEAN free trade area
Game theoretical analysis
Nash equilibrium
Tariff rate
