摘要
以货币政策传导渠道为理论依据,通过结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型构造货币政策对房地产市场的作用途径,可测度各种货币政策工具冲击对我国房地产市场供求的相对强度。实证分析结果表明,利率政策的冲击效力明显且持久,是调控房地产市场最有效的货币政策工具;紧缩的信贷政策仅能在短期内抑制房地产市场需求,长期效果欠佳;而货币供给量冲击对房地产市场的影响并不显著。相对于房地产需求,房地产市场供给对各种货币政策工具冲击的响应深度高,但响应速度较慢。
Based on the monetary transmission mechanism theory, this paper models the monetary policy transmission channel on real estate market by SVAR method, and measures the response of the real estate market to different monetary shocks. The empirical results show that the effect of real interest rate shock is significant and permanent and is the most effective monetary instrument to control real estate market and that the tightening credit policy can only control the demand of real estate market in a short term, but has limited long-term effect. It is also found that the effect of monetary supply shock is insignificant. Compared with the demand of property, the response of property supply to policy shock is deep and slow.
出处
《当代财经》
CSSCI
北大核心
2008年第8期55-60,共6页
Contemporary Finance and Economics
基金
上海财经大学研究生创新基金(200b950127)
关键词
货币政策
房地产
传导渠道
SVAR模型
结构式冲击
Monetary Policy
Real Estate Market
Transmission Channel
SVAR Model
Structure Shock
