摘要
目的 :了解钩虫种群传播动力学特征及化疗对其种群传播的影响。方法 :运用数学模型模拟两组人群钩虫感染的种群传播动力学。结果 :显示两组人群钩虫感染的年龄 -感染率和年龄 -感染度总趋势随年龄增长而上升 ,钩虫种群在人群中呈负二项分布 ( Ka=0 .2 89,Kb=0 .2 0 6) ;虫荷与产卵量呈非线性关系 ,存在密度依赖限制作用 ( Za=0 .919,Zb=0 .899) ,基本繁殖率分别为 Ra=2 .153和 Rb=1.872 ;一次化疗 A组和 B组人群阴转率分别为 75.3%和 97.7% ,EPG分别下降92 .7%和 98.6% ,两组人群分别存在再感染。结论 :R值超过传播阈值 ( R0 =1) ,表明当地钩虫感染呈地方性稳定流行 ,在 R值高的流行区化疗遇到的难度较 R值低的流行区大 ,由于再感染 ,一次化疗的效果在长期内得不到巩固 ,在疗效考核中 ,感染度较感染率为更准确合理的指标。
AIM:To understand the population dynamics of hookworm infection and the effect of chemotherapy on population transmission. METHODS:The mathematic model was used to simulate the population dynamics of hookworm infection in the population of Groups A and B.RESULTS:The changes in age- prevalence and age- intensity (EPG) profile rose with age; the negative binomial probability model provided a good empirical description of the frequen- cy distribution ofhookworm burden per host,the K value was0 .2 89and0 .2 0 6 ,respectively in Groups A and B.There was a non- linear relationship between worm burden and egg pro- duction and this showed density- dependent,the Z value was0 .91 9and0 .899,respectively in Groups A and B.The basic reproductive rate R was 2 .1 5 3and 1 .872 ,respectively in Groups A and B.CONCLUSION:When R value was greater than the transmission threshold (Ro=1 ) ,the endemicity of the hookworm infection was stable in the community;the diffi- culty of control programme metwas higherin the endemic area with high R than with low R, the effectof a single chemotherapy could notbe consolidated within a long period due to rein- fection;the effectiveness of chemotherapy should be evaluated by examining the intensity of infection rather than overall prevalence.
出处
《中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
1997年第5期276-280,共5页
Chinese Journal of Parasitology and Parasitic Diseases
基金
江苏省卫生厅资助
关键词
钩虫
流行病学
种群动力学
药物疗法
H ookworm,infection,epidemiology,population dynam ics,chem otherapy
