摘要
本文通过采用HP滤波法,对1978-2006年期间我国东北地区粳稻生产面积、单产和产量的长期波动和短期波动进行了测定和分析。分析认为,1978-2006年期间东北地区粳稻生产发展较快,是我国水稻生产发展最快的地区之一,而且产量继续提高的可能性较大。但东北地区粳稻生产波动幅度较大,波动频率较高,易出现大起大落的状况,在实际生产中必须转变产量增长方式,降低单产的波动幅度,促进东北粳稻生产平稳发展。
The paper measures the long term and short term fluctuation of planting area, yield and output of japonica in northeast between 1978-2006 by HP Filter. The author suggests that the japonica production in northeast has made a great stride between 1978-2006 and still has great potentiality. However, the output of japonica in northeast is unstable, and the way to weaken the fluctuation is to change the growth mode, reduce the range of yield fluctuation.
出处
《农业现代化研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第3期343-346,共4页
Research of Agricultural Modernization
关键词
粳稻
波动
滤波法
japonica rice
fluctuation
HP Filter
