摘要
介绍了三种火灾事故发展趋势预测方法:灰色理论预测法、指数平滑法和马尔科夫预测法。结合贵州省1997至2006年火灾四项指标统计数据,探讨了三种预测方法对不同波动幅度数据序列的适用性;给出了贵州省未来两年火灾的发展趋势,可为当地制定正确地防止火灾发生的决策提供重要的参考依据。此外,还对每种方法在预测过程中值得注意的问题进行了讨论。
In this paper, three macroscopical fire forecast methods, respectively by gray theory method, exponential smoothing method and Markov chain method, are described. The methods are used to analyze the fire statistical data in Guizhou province from 1997 to 2006, in order to forecast the number of fire accidents, economy loss and injury and deaths in the future two years, whereby the trend of fire accident is predicted.
出处
《火灾科学》
CAS
CSCD
2008年第2期111-117,共7页
Fire Safety Science
