摘要
利用线性倾向率、滑动平均、小波分析、异常分析等方法,对黄冈市45 a来(1961～2005年)气温和降水变化事实进行诊断分析,着重分析气温和降水的年际变化、年代际变化等基本气候特征。结果表明,黄冈市年平均气温呈上升趋势,特别是自1980年代后期上升尤为明显,冬、春季增温对该市年平均气温贡献最大;平均气温变化阶段性明显;气温周期性变化明显,平均气温主要有4 a和6 a年际周期、13 a和20 a年代际周期;45 a中没有出现异常偏冷年,异常偏暖年出现过1次(1998年);年最高气温呈弱上升趋势,阶段性明显,冷暖交替变化;年最低气温呈明显上升趋势;年降水量呈增多趋势,1980年代为降水峰值期;降水量周期性变化明显,主要有6～7 a年际周期、13 a年代际周期;45 a中降水异常偏多和异常偏少均未出现。
By using of the linear trend, moving average, wavelet analysis and anomalous analysis methods, temperature and precipitation change in Huanggang during recent 45 yrs （1961-2005） are analyzed emphatically on their climatic characteristics of inter-annual and inter-decadal variations. The results show that yearly mean temperature has an warming tendeney in Huanggang during recent 45 yrs, obviously increases in the later 1980s. The winter and spring warming greatly influence the yearly mean temperature. The stage of temperature variation is obvious with the cold period from 1960s to the early 1980s and the warm period since 1990s. Periodicity of temperature is obvious as 4 yrs and 6 yrs inter-annual periodicity and 13 yrs and 20 yrs inter-decadal periodicity. There is not an anomalous cold year and an anomalous warm year （1998） during the past 45 yrs. Yearly maximum temperature increases weakly with the obvious stage variation and alternate change between cold seasons and warm ones. Yearly minimum temperature increases after 1960s Yearly precipitation quantity shows a increasing trend with the peak value in 1980s. Precipitation periodicity is obvious as 6-7 yrs inter-annual and 13 yrs inter-decadal periodicity. There is an anomalous plenty rainfall year （1983） without any anomalous deficient rainfall years during 45 yrs.
出处
《暴雨灾害》
2008年第1期59-63,82,共6页
Torrential Rain and Disasters
关键词
气温
降水
趋势变化
周期性
异常分析
Temperature
Precipitation
Trend variation
Periodicity
Anomalous analysis
