摘要
文章对数字图书馆的发展趋势作定量分析，这有利于我们了解中国数字图书馆的建设及研究情况。组合预测方法能有效地集成各个单项预测方法提供的有效信息和提高预测精度，因而在众多领域有广泛的应用。文章在中国数字图书馆的研究论文的统计数据的基础上，建立相应的组合模型。文章利用信息论中熵值的概念，获得计算组合预测加权系数的一种方法。最后实例分析结果表明中国数字图书馆的研究论文的组合预测方法的结果令人满意。
The developing tendency of digital library is qualified in this paper, which is benefit for us to know its constructions and researches. Combination forecasting can integrate information supplied by single forecasting method and improve forecasting precision effectively, so it can be utilized to forecast in many fields. Based on statistical data of research paper on digital library, the corresponding combination forecasting model is built up. We obtain the weighted averaging coefficients of combination forecasting using the concept of entropy. Finally an example is illustrated to show that this model has a satisfactory resul.
出处
《数字图书馆论坛》
2007年第12期41-44,共4页
Digital Library Forum
基金
安徽教育厅人文社科重点项目资助（2007sk049zd）,国家自然科学基金资助项目（70571001）,安徽省自然科学基金资助项目（070416245）.
关键词
数字图书馆
组合预测
单项预测
预测精度
Digital library. Combination forecasting, Single forecasting. Forecasting precision
