摘要
提出了灰色–周期外延组合模型,即在一般灰色模型GM(1,1)的基础上建立残差周期外延模型,并提取优势周期以重新构造新的数据序列,再将不同周期同一时刻的值叠加。该模型兼顾了电力负荷的增长性和周期波动性二重趋势,较好地克服了上述二重趋势引起的负荷变化非线性组合特征给精确负荷预测带来的困难。实例计算结果表明该模型明显地提高了电力负荷预测精度。
On the basis of common GM（1, 1） model and by means of establishing residual error periodic extensional model, the authors extract predominant period and reconstruct a new data sequence; then after superposing the values of the same time m different period, a ray-periodic extensional combinatorial model is built. The built model simultaneously considers the duplicate trends of loads, i.e., the growth property and periodic fluctuation, so it can well overcome the difficulty in accurate load forecasting brought about by the nonlinear combined character of load change caused by the duplicate trends. Results of case calculation show that the built model can improve the accuracy of load forecasting obviously.
出处
《电网技术》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第24期52-54,共3页
Power System Technology
