摘要
设备原始参数的求取是评估电力系统可靠性的前提和基础,包括设备的故障率、修复率等.文章利用偏最小二乘法,借助1995～2000年的全国100MW火力发电机组的多项可靠性统计指标,对其中蕴含的信息进行提取,建立了可靠性指标与可靠性原始参数之间的函数关系,得到了设备故障率的拟合值,并以图示的方法给出了拟合结果,最后与实际值进行了比较.计算结果表明,可靠性原始参数与可靠性指标之间存在函数关系,可由可靠性指标求取可靠性原始参数,为原始参数的求取提供了一种新方法.
It is the precondition and foundation for evaluating the power system reliability to obtain original parameters of power equipments, including the failure rate and the repair rate of equipments. Using partial least square method and by means of the statistical reliability indices of domestic thermal generating units with the capacity of 100MW from 1995 to 2000, the information contained in these reliability indices is extracted and the functional relation between the reliability indices and the original reliability parameters is built, then the fitted values of equipment failure rate are acquired, and the fitting results are given by graph, finally the calculated equipment failure rates are compared with actual measured values. The calculation results show that there are functional relations between the original reliability parameters and the reliability indices, and the original parameters can be obtained from reliability indices, so a new approach to obtain original parameters is offered.
出处
《电网技术》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第5期12-15,42,共5页
Power System Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(50337010)~~
关键词
电力系统
可靠性
偏最小二乘法
设备故障率
Information analysis
Least squares approximations
Parameter estimation
Reliability
Statistical methods
