摘要
传统灰色GM(1,1)模型对稳定序列的中长期预测效果较好,对变化幅度较大的严重干旱年序列的中长期预测效果较差。本文采用中心逼近式灰色GM(1,1)模型,通过调整m值,使模型精度达到要求,从而建立浙江省严重干旱发生年份的GM(1,1)预测模型。拟合结果表明,该方法对预测浙江省下一个严重干旱发生年有一定的参考价值。
The traditional grey prediction model got good results for a stable medium and long sequence, but not good for a variable medium and long sequence, such as severe drought occurrence. The center approach grey GM （ 1,1 ） model was established for prediction of severe drought occurrence, Prediction results showed that this model was valid for prediction of the severe drought occurrence in Zhejiang Province.
出处
《中国农业气象》
CSCD
2007年第4期460-462,共3页
Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology
基金
浙江省科研项目"杭州湾南岸植被模式与生态气象灾害监测技术应用研究"(2004C33082)
绍兴市科技局重点项目"绍兴市北部地区生态系统监测与农业气象灾害预警预测新技术研究"(A23-2003131)
关键词
浙江省
严重干旱
GM(1
1)模型
预测
Zhejiang Province
Severe Drought
GM（ 1,1 ）prediction model
Forecast
