摘要
针对机械设备在使用过程中受到的时变不确定性因素(如荷载、环境及材料自身等因素)影响,建立了基于随机微分方程的时变可靠性预测模型,提出了考虑不确定性因素的时变可靠度计算方法.该方法考虑了机械零件强度和工作应力的演化过程,能够计算出机械零件在任意时刻的可靠度,解决了用概率设计方法设计的机械零件仅知道其设计可靠度而不知道零件在使用期间任意时刻可靠度的问题,可以对复杂不确定性因素作用下的设备进行时变可靠性评估,进而对使用期的可靠性指标变化趋势进行预测,为设备的维修和维护提供参考.
Uncertainties inherent in loads, environment and material properties always exist during machine lifetime. A time-dependent model incorporating such uncertainties based on stochastic differential equation theory is presented, which provides a coherent framework for calculating time-dependent reliability under such external uncertainties leading to uncertainties in stress and strength. Therefore, the reliability for all time horizons can be gained via this model to predict the uncertain evolution and movement or the trend of machine reliability. This research can also provide a basis for maintenance of machine.
出处
《西安交通大学学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第11期1303-1306,共4页
Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(50475173)
关键词
时变
可靠度
不确定性
机械设备
time--dependent
reliability
uncertainty
machine
