摘要
针对武器装备效能评估可能存在的评估风险问题,提出一种旨在缩减这类风险的稳健评估方法及支撑技术。该方法包括:建立面向装备类型的效能评估指标体系,利用仿真手段主动采集评估数据,对专家数据以及仿真数据等多种评估数据源进行评估融合。并对评估结果的稳定性进行测度,找出效能评估值影响因素,据之进行下一轮的评估,直至得到稳定、风险降低的评估结论为止。以装甲装备体系作战效能评估为例,利用稳健评估方法进行评估表明,评估过程合理,结果趋于稳定,的确降低了评估风险。
Aiming at evaluation results risk of operational effectiveness of weapon equipment, a robust evaluation method and its key techniques were put forward to reduce this risk. The robust evaluation includes such key techniques as follows： first to set up the oriented-equipment type evaluation indexes system of effectiveness; second to get the evaluation data mainly by means of simulation; third to fuse the data from experts experience and simulation data. What is more, in order to get the stability evaluation results, the stability of the evaluation results was measured, and the key factors were found out which affected the evaluation results. An example for armor unit was evaluated, with the robust evaluation method, and the process was plausible, and the results were credibility, really reducing the evaluation risk. With above methodology used, the evaluation results demonstrate to be feasible and reasonable.
出处
《系统仿真学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第20期4629-4633,4656,共6页
Journal of System Simulation
关键词
稳健评估
作战效能
评估风险
多数据融合
仿真评估
robust evaluation
evaluation risk
operational effectiveness
multi-data fusion
simulation evaluation
