摘要
根据电力系统负荷变化的特点,采用非线性GM(1,1)模型与动态GM(1,1)模型相结合的非线性动态GM(1,1)模型对其进行预测。通过实例分析与检验,证明NLDGM(1,1)模型比传统GM(1,1)模型与NLGM(1,1)模型精度更高、误差更小、预测效果更好。所以,该预测模型具有一定的应用价值。
According to the changing characteristic of load of electric system, adopt non - linear dynamic GM （1,1） model which is combined by non - linear GM （1, 1） model and dynamic GM （1,1） model to forecast future load of electric system. Through the instance analysis and checkout, it is proved that NLDGM （1,1） model has higher precision, less error and more satisfying forecasting effect than traditional GM （1,1） and NLGM （ 1,1）. Thus, this forecasting model possesses certain application value.
出处
《浙江电力》
2007年第3期5-8,25,共5页
Zhejiang Electric Power
