摘要
基础设施是经济发展的重要影响因素,而“基础设施投资促进经济发展”这一主流观点已得到广泛共识,但人们对经济增长与基础设施的探讨仅局限于总量的分析框架,并未对基础设施的类型加以区分,更没发现经济发展的不同阶段对基础设施的需求结构也是不同的。而以“基础设施投资促进经济发展”为出发点,将基础设施投资细分为生产性、生活性、社会性基础设施投资,并分别讨论其对经济的影响。通过邹检验发现:自1994年以来,基础设施投资冲击改变了中国经济增长的特征。其结论是生产性、生活性基础设施对经济增长的影响是明确的、同步的,但社会性基础设施对经济增长的作用是不确定的。因此,加强社会性基础设施投资是一个渐进地逐步推进的过程。
Infrastructure exerts a significant influence on economic development. Infrastructure investment has been catching the attention of the scholar circle, the enterprise circle, and the authorities. Many scholars, onventure of Econometric methods, find that the a 1% of the infrastructure leads to a increase of 3% of economic growth. It has been widely realized that the infrastructure investment contributes to the economy development. The analysis on the relationship between the economy development and the infrastructure investment is limited in gross analysis, without the mention of the different kind of the infrastructure investment as well as the different demand structures in different phases of economic development. As the reality shows, the conflict between the supply and demand as to the infrastructure inves .trnent comes to being the main problem to our society. Consequently, enhancing the infrastructure investment also has been serving as an effective means to contributing to the economic development for many authorities.
出处
《统计与信息论坛》
2007年第3期87-93,共7页
Journal of Statistics and Information
关键词
基础设施
中国经济增长
邹检验
相关分析
infrastructure
economic growth in China
Chow test
correlation analysis
