摘要
用冰川动力模型对乌鲁木齐河源１号冰川东支进行模拟计算结果表明：１号冰川东支在维持目前的气候变化水平下还将继续退缩到约１６００ｍ长度；若气温升高１℃，１号冰川将退缩为约只有３００ｍ长的悬冰川。随着冰川退缩，冰川冷却作用减弱，冰川区的升温将高于非冰川区。１号冰川目前的冰川径流是处在一个高值期（相对于它的稳定状态），若气候继续变暖，冰川径流还将继续增大，达到一峰值后将迅速减小。
This paper presents a model that simulates processes on responses of Glacier No.1 in headwaters of the Urumqi River to various future climatic scenarios with a glacier dynamic model. The results indicate that the Glacier No.1 in headwaters of the Urumqi River will continue to retreat if current climatic conditions prevail, until it reaches a steady state of 1600 m in length after 700 to 800 years. If the air temperature were to rise 1℃, the glacier would degenerate and become a hanging glacier with a length of 300 m after 700 to 800 years. Due to glacier degeneration, cooling function of the glacier would decrease so that the increase of the air temperature in glaciated area would be higher than that in non glaciated areas. The current glacier runoff is in higher value in comparison with the runoff in the equilibrium state under the current climatic conditions. If the air temperature would continue to rise, hovewer, the runoff of the glacier would still increase and reach a new peak but after then decrease rapidly.
出处
《地理科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
1997年第1期32-40,共9页
Scientia Geographica Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金
