摘要
20世纪80年代后期,东亚国家采取了经济开放政策,FDI成为经济增长的重要推动力,其中日本对东亚国家的FDI资金规模庞大,并在推动国家间产业分工中起到了重要作用。日本对东亚国家的FDI以1997、1998年的金融危机为分水岭经历了两个阶段,前期以日元升值为契机,日本增加了对各国的FDI数量;后期随着各国的汇率波动显著增大,日本的FDI大幅度减少。本文分析了日元汇率趋势性变化和短期波动对FDI的影响。在回顾相关理论、实证模型的基础上,通过面板数据模型,揭示日元汇率变化与其对东亚国家直接投资的关系。结合我国人民币汇率制度改革,对人民币汇率升值、波动性增加对涉外经济的影响进行了考察,并提出了相关政策建议。
In the late 1980s, East Asian countries adopted the economic open policy, and FDI became the main motive force of economic growth. Among them, Japan＇ s FDI to East Asian countries was in large scale and played a vital role in promoting international industry division. Taking the financial crisis as a watershed, Japan＇ FDI to East Asian countries has experienced two stages. In the earlier period, Japan took Yen＇ s appreciation as the turning point, and increased its FDI to various countries. In later period, Japan reduced its FDI on a large scale along with various countries＇ exchange rate fluctuation remarkably increased.This text will analyze the impact on FDI that the exchange rate trend changes and short-term fluctuation of Yen. On the basis of reviewing relevant theories and real example models, this text announces the relation between the exchange rate change of Yen and Japan＇ s FDI to East Asian countries with panel-data model. Finally, combining with the reform of RMB exchange rate system, this text researches the impact on foreign-related business that RMB exchange rate appreciation and fluctuation increase, and proposes relevant policy recommendations.
出处
《经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2007年第7期12-16,共5页
Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )
