摘要
本文通过运用时间序列方法,研究中国煤炭消费和经济增长之间的短期和长期的因果关系。使用了1980—2004年的数据。根据误差修正模型进行检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果检验表明,煤炭消费与经济增长之间存在因果关系。这意味着煤炭消费的增长直接影响经济增长。因此,为了不影响经济的增长,中国应该努力克服煤炭消费的限制。此外,本研究支持实际收入的增加会引起煤炭消费增长的观点。
This paper by means of modern timeseries techniques studies the short-and long-termed causality between coal consumption and economic growth in China with data covering 1980 to 2004. Tests for unit roots, cointegrate, and Grangercausality based on error-correction model indicate that there exists bidirectional causality between coal consumption and economic growth, meaning an increase in coal consumption directly affects economic growth. China shall be free in coal consumption to ensure the economic growth. Moreover, this study supports that an increase in real income gives rise to increased coal consumption.
出处
《资源与产业》
2007年第1期89-92,共4页
Resources & Industries
