摘要
城市事故灾难风险分析是以城市整体为研究对象,涉及理、工、文、管多学科领域的城市安全管理重要内容。笔者提出城市事故灾难风险分析的基本思路和一般研究框架;归纳出城市事故灾难风险分析应包括:基于事故发生可能性的研究、基于事故预测模型的研究、基于风险值的研究、不确定性的研究等主要研究内容,并介绍了每个研究内容的国内外研究现状;针对研究内容评述其领域未来发展方向和热点问题。
Risk analysis of urban accidents takes the whole city as the object of study; it is an important component of urban safety management and a comprehensive disciplinary covering science, engineering, arts and management. This article first brings forward the basic thread and the research framework of risk analysis of urban accidents based on the current related research results, then introduces the main research fields of risk analysis of urban accidents such as research on risk analysis of urban accidents based on the probability of accidents, research on risk analysis of urban accidents based on the forecasting models, research on risk analysis of urban accidents based on the value of risk and research on risk analysis of urban accidents based on uncertainty. Finally, the researching situation of each field at home and abroad is described, and the future development trend and research hotspots of each field are prospected.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
2006年第11期119-124,共6页
China Safety Science Journal
