摘要
应用博弈论思想,模拟比较了水权分配中直接比例配置法和两部配置法对黑河流域张掖市甘州、临泽、高台种植业经济效益的影响。分析结果表明:(1)水权交易可优化配置有限的水资源、实现经济增效,完全市场下水权交易可使研究区最大增加1.338 5亿元/年的经济收益,来水较丰(10%和25%保证率)年的水权交易收益增长高于平水和欠丰年(50%和75%保证率),建立完善、广泛的水权交易市场机制是适应未来变化、实现水资源高效配置的适应对策之一;(2)水权交易的内在机制在于因生产结构、生产效率等而异的用水效益异质性和缺水状况;(3)两部配置法比直接比例法更符合高效、稳定且又不失公平的水管理准则,同时可降低水资源系统本身不确定性导致农业经济不稳定的风险。
To mitigate the uncertainty of hydrological system, which would enlarge the uncertainty of water property trade, the paper introduced a two part deployment method of water resource property, and stimulated the efficiency of water property trade based on the game theory, with a case in the main body of Zhangye prefecture in Heihe River basin, including Ganzhou, Linze and Gaotai counties. The results showed that： （1） water property trade would result in a potential maximum benefit of 133.85 x 106 RMB/ yr; （2） The feasibility of application of water trade depends on the heterogeneity of the player in the game coalition; （3） two-part deployment method is better than the conventional direct ratio method which is based on the ratio of water system runoff, especially in view of reducing the uncertainty of water property trade due to the uncertainty of hydrological system and increasing the economic benefits. The simulation suggests the two part deployment method be implemented in the water property management in arid and semi-arid regions.
出处
《水利学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第11期1329-1335,共7页
Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
基金
国家自然科学重点基金(40235053)
关键词
水权交易
两部配置法
模拟分析
效益改进
water property trade
uncertainty
two-part deployment method
game analysis
benefit
improvement
