摘要
随着我国经济的发展和经济结构的调整,居民用电占全社会用电量的比重逐渐增大并有继续增加的趋势。为了定量分析我国城镇居民生活用电的未来发展,从统计数据出发,选择城镇居民人均收入、城镇民用电价、前一年的城镇居民人均生活用电量作为解释变量,建立了城镇居民生活用电需求预测计量方程,确定了用电量和影响用电量的因素之间的理论和数量关系,同时为了提高模型的预测精度,揭示短期波动,建立了关于城镇居民生活用电的误差修正模型。并以此预测了2004年和2005年的用电量。结果表明,未来几年内,我国城镇居民人均生活用电量将以5.0%左右的年增长率变化。
With the development of eeonomy and adjustment of eeonomie strueture in China, the proportion of the residential eleetrieity eonsumption in total eleetrieity eonsumption is inereasing gradually. In order to analyze the future of residential living eleetrieity demand quantitatively, based on the statistieal data, urban residential per eapita ineome, urban eleetrieity priee and last year urban residential per eapita eleetrieity eonsumption were regarded as explanatory variables, and eeonometrie equation of urban residential eleetrieity eonsumption was established. This model determines the theory and quantity relationship between eleetrieity eonsumption and faetor~ that have impaets on eleetrieity eonsumption. In order to improve the foreeast preeision and diselose short-term fluetuation, Error Correetion Model was given subsequently. The foreeast results of eleetrieity eonsumption in 2004 and 2005 show the urban residential eleetrieity eonsumption will grow at the rate of 5% annually in the future.
出处
《中国电力》
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第9期67-70,共4页
Electric Power
关键词
生活用电
计量经济模型
需求预测
living electricity consumption
econometric model
demand forecast
