摘要
本文选用四川地区近20年来多次强震、中强震总结出来的6种地震学预报方法,分别计算每一种震兆异常出现时发生地震的条件概率,在此基础上计算了几次已发生的地震前不同预报时间和范围内地震发生的综合概率及概率增益,以及1970—1986年鲜水河地震带北1/2部分每半年时段发生M=5,6,7地震的综合概率曲线,在震兆的相互独立性不完全清楚时,这种曲线对发震可能作相对估计是有用的。在上述震兆条件下,似乎可将半年内6、7级地震综合概率曲线超过0.5作为预测地震发生的指标。
Using six seismological prediction methods that summed up from many strong and moderate earthquakes in Sichuan province in the last 20 years, the authors have respectively calculated the conditional probability of earthquake occurrence when each of the six kinds of seismic anomalis appeared. Based on this, the synthetic probability and probability gain of earthquake occurrence in different prediction time-interval and area before several earthquakes that already occurred have been calculated; and synthetic probability curves of earthquakes M = 5, 6, 7 occurring in the northern half segment of Xianshuihe seismic zone in every half year from 1970 to 1986 have also been drawn. When the mutual independence of seismic precusors is unclear, such curves might be useful for relatively estimating earthquake occurrence rate. Under conditions of seismic precursors mentioned above, it seems that the synthetic probability curves in half a year exceeding 0.5 can be taken as an index for predicting earthquake occurrence for earthquakes with M = 6, 7.
出处
《地震》
CSCD
北大核心
1990年第2期5-11,共7页
Earthquake
