摘要
本文利用最大熵原理计算了山西地震带(1200—1989年)中强震分震级档的年平均发生率。利用综合概率法根据地震活动性的多次指标计算了各潜在震源区的空间分布函数,把空间分布函数作为权系数将山西地震带中强震分震级档的年平均发生率向各潜在震源区分配,可得到各潜在震源区分震级档的年平均发生率和平均重现期。对震级M的概率密度函数f_M(m)的x^2检验表明,在水平0.25时通过x^2检验。作为应用实例,计算了临汾盆地M≥5.5地震的年平均发生率和平均重现期,内符检验表明,理论值和实际发生地震数符合得较好。
This paper computed the yearly average occurrence rate of moderate earthquakes in Shan-xi seismic zone (1200-1989) by using the maximum entropy principle, and according to the polynomial indexes calculated the spatical distribution functions in every potential focal region by using the comprehensive probability method. Take the spatial distribution function for weight coeffecient to allocate the yearly average occurrence rate of various magnitudes of moderate earthquakes to all potential focal regions, thus the yearly mean occurrence rate and ave-rage recurrence period of different magnitudes in every potential focal region can be obtained. Therefore, the yearly average occurrence rate of earthquakes ≥ magnitude M and the average recurrence period for a seismic risk region composed of one or more potential focal regions, can be got.The examination-of the X2 of the probability density function fm(m) of seismic magnitude M shows that it passes through X2 examination at horizontal 0.25. As an example, the yearly average occurrence rate and recurrence period of M≥5.5 earthquakes in Linfen basin were computed 'and the internal examination indicates that the theoretical value is better consistent with the actually occurred number of earthquakes.
出处
《地震》
CSCD
北大核心
1993年第3期38-43,共6页
Earthquake
关键词
最大熵原理
地震年
发生率
maximum entropy principle
rate of year earthquake occurrence
average reccurrence interval
distribution function
