摘要
本文应用模糊综合评判模型,并根据华北有关地震的资料,对华北地区近二十年来发生的8次5级以上地震前若干年内的一些地震活动特征进行了识别,建立了它们的隶属函数和多级模糊评判模型,最后综合评判的结果是满意的,与事实是基本相符合的。文章还应用该评判模型对1983年11月7日菏泽5.9级地震、文安坝县地区1983—1984年的地震活动进行了外推检验,结果也是正确的。最后用该模型对京西北地区的地震趋势进行了估计。
According to seismicity data obtained in North China, this paper has distinguished some seismicity characteristics for a number of years before each of eight earthquakes with M>5 occurred in North China in the last 20 years, and constructed their subordinate functions and multilevel fuzzy judgment model through fuzzy synthetic decision model. The final synthetic decision result is satisfactory and basically coincident with the real cases. An extrapolation test has also been carried out on the Heze earthquake M5.9 on November 7th, 1983 and the seismicities in the Wenan-Baxian area in 1983-1984, by using the judgment model, and the result is also correct, finally, the earthquake tendency in the area northwest of Beijing has been estimated by this model.
出处
《地震》
CSCD
北大核心
1990年第1期59-65,共7页
Earthquake
