摘要
作为全球性的基础产业之一,能源工业的可持续发展正面临着资源短缺和环境保护两方面的巨大压力,使得21世纪能源工业和能源技术的发展面临着前所未有的机遇和挑战.准确把握未来能源工业的发展方向,既是世界各国保证其能源安全的重大战略需求,也是世界各大能源公司在日趋激烈的技术和市场竞争中立于不败之地的前提.因此,对未来能源状况及能源技术发展趋势的技术预见(TFS)研究在世界范围内得到了广泛的关注.本文在综述TFS活动的发展历程、TFS与核心竞争力和可持续发展的关系以及TFS方法等的基础上,以中国、日本和Shell公司进行的TFS活动为例重点介绍了TFS方法在能源领域的应用情况,并以未来5～15年我国清洁汽油的构成情景分析为范例阐述了TFS方法的应用,以期为国内相关的TFS活动提供参考.
Entering into 21st century, energy industry, one of the supporting industrial sectors for all over the world, is experiencing profound changes driven by the increasingly rapid depletion of fossil fuels and the overwhelming concerns about environmental protection. To identify and highlight the critical needs and opportunities in the future has become one of the key strategies, almost all the countries and energy companies should carefully formulate, and for this purpose technology foresight （TFS） becomes one of the most important tools. This article introduces the development of TFS, the relationship of TFS with core competence and sustainable development, various methodologies used in TFS activities and their applications to energy industry with the activities carried out by China, Japan and Shell as examples, in order to provide a reference for the related activities that are ongoing in China. Finally, the scenario-based analysis of clean gasoline in the next 5 to 15 years in China was presented as an example to demonstrate the application of TFS.
出处
《化工学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第8期1817-1826,共10页
CIESC Journal
关键词
技术预见
方法
能源工业
technology foresight
methodology
energy industry
