摘要
城市燃气日负荷除了以星期为周期变化外,同天气、温度、节假日等因素密切相关,呈高度非线性和随机性。根据城市燃气日负荷变化的特点和历史数据,依据模糊理论,确定出各影响因素与日负荷的关系,建立了日负荷预测模型,给出了预测实例。由于可以考虑多种影响负荷的因素,因此提高了预测的精度。
Except change according to cycle of week, daily load of city gas is closely related with factors, such as weather, temperature, festival or holidays, etc. , and it is highly nonlinear and random. Based on the characteristics of daily load change of the city gas and historical data, and according to the fuzzy theory, the relation between different influencing factors and the daily load is determined, the model for predicting the daily load is established, and the prediction examples are given. Because many factors affecting load can be considered, the prediction precision is improved.
出处
《煤气与热力》
2006年第8期12-16,共5页
Gas & Heat
关键词
模糊模式识别
模糊聚类
城市燃气日负荷
模糊预测
fuzzy pattern recognition
fuzzy cluster
daily load of city gas
fuzzy prediction
