摘要
预报预警是防灾减灾的重要手段。目前,我国及各省(直辖市)、自治区广泛开展了地质灾害-气象预报预警工作。因此,对其水平进行科学评价已成为一个重要的研究课题。论文在前人研究的基础上,分析我国地质灾害预报预警现状及对预报预警水平评价时存在的问题,用预报预警成功率衡量预报预警水平,并建立系统的地质灾害预报预警水平评价体系;从地质灾害预报预警需解决的基本问题出发,在充分考虑地质灾害发生“时、空、强”3要素的预报预警范围对预报预警成功率的影响后,相继建立了地质灾害“时、空、强”预报预警成功率、某次灾害预报预警成功率及某时段内地质灾害预报预警成功率模型;在该模型基础上,分别建立某次及某时段内地质灾害预报预警水平整体评价模型。论文提出的评价体系及评价模型符合我国目前地质灾害预报预警现状,为地质灾害预报预警水平评价提供了一条思路。
Accurate forecast and warning is an effective measure to avoid and mitigat loss caused by geological hazard. Much work has been doing on geological hazard forecast and warning in our country. So scientific evaluation of geological hazard forecast and warning level becomes an important question for discussion. However, many problems were found in current evaluation system of geological hazard forecast and warning level in the former research. In order to solve out these problems and to evaluate the forecast and warning level scientifically, in this article, successful rate of geological hazard forecast and warning was adopted and an integrated evaluation system was introduced. As we all know, the content of the forecast and warning of geological hazards generally includes three elements such as occurring time, space and magnitude, what＇s more, the forecast and warning scope of theses three elements affect the forecast and warning level. So in this article three forecast and warning evaluation models of these three elements were respectively established at first. Then on the basis of the three evaluation models, an integrated evaluation model was established, which includes both the evaluation of one geological hazard occurred at certain time and evaluation of all the geological hazards occurred at certain time interval, such as one quarter or one year. The evaluation model of geological hazard forecast and warning level introduced in this article accords with the current level of our country and therefore it has certain reference value to evaluate the level of geological hazard forecast and warning.
出处
《中国地质灾害与防治学报》
CSCD
2006年第2期130-133,共4页
The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control
关键词
地质灾害
预报预警
水平评价
地质灾害“时、空、强”预报
成功率
geological hazards
forecast and warning
evaluation of technique level
successful rate of spatial,temporal and intensity forecat for geological hazards
