摘要
以前的各种评价地震预报效能的方法只考虑预报意见对应实发地震的情况,而未顾及预报意见本身中所预报的区域的大小、时间的区间的长短和震级的范围对评分应起的作用。本文首先评价地震预报本身的确定率,而不管此预报意见未来是否报准了地震。其次是本文给出了实际发生的地震超出预报意见所限定的范围时地震预报报准率的计算方法,进而给出了地震预报成功率的计算方法。
This paper pointed that the previous methods of evaluation of earthquake prediction calculated whether the earthquakes would occure within the scale predicted,but ignored the effects of length of time,largeness of area and range of earthquake magnitude predicted in evaluation.This paper firstly evaluated the determination rate of the prediction itself but to pay no attention to whether the prediction would be exact or not in future;Next devised a new method to calculate rate of earthquake prediction if the earthquakes would occurred out of the scale predicted,and then to calculate the success rate of prediction.
出处
《地震》
CSCD
北大核心
1994年第5期31-35,共5页
Earthquake
关键词
地震预报
效能评价
确定率
成功率
evaluation of earthquake prediction
the determinayion rate of pre- diction
the exactitude rate of prediction
the success rate of prediction
