摘要
研究1990-2004年上海户籍人口分布变动情况,发现1993年上海人口分布变动出现拐点,1994年人口分布变动与郊区化明显活跃。通过建立模型进行模拟,对上海人口郊区化的经济影响因素分析,得出以下结论:人均GDP、城市基础设施投资和住宅投资这三个经济因素对上海城市人口郊区化产生重要影响;上海人均GDP恰好为2 000美元时,上海城市人口郊区化明显活跃,这与西方发达国家在人均GDP3 000美元时人口郊区化活跃形成对比。
Based on the data of Shanghai statistic books, this paper makes a study of Shanghai＇ s registered population＇s distributing alteration from the year of 1990 to 2004. Through the curves of registered population, we can find that there was an inflexion of Shanghai＇ s registered population＇s distributing alteration in the year of 1993, and in the year of 1994, Shanghai＇s registered population＇s distributing alteration and suburbanization became obviously intense. In this paper, we also coustruct models to simulate the whole process, and after an analysis of the factors of suburbanization and economic influence, the following conclusions can be drawn. ① The three economic factors （the GDP per capita, the investment on urban infrastructure and the investment on dwelling houses） have important impacts on the population suburbanization in Shanghai.② The development of urban economy affected and restricted the population distribution. It can be seen that the alteration of Shanghai＇ s population distribution lagged behind the economic alteration. ③ The su华tion of China＇ s big cities differs from that of western developed countries to some extent, yet there still exist several similar laws and characters istics. When the GDP per capita reached $ 2000 U. S. dollars in the year of 1994, Shanghai＇ s registered population suburhanization became obviously intense, in contrast to the phenomenon that in western developed countries where the population suburbanization became obviously intense when the GDP per capita reached $ 3000 dollars.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
2006年第3期62-65,共4页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
教育部"十五"规划项目"上海人口分布变动与郊区化研究"(编号:01JA840019)
上海市政府政策咨询重点项目"上海城市人口结构和布局结构实证研究"(编号:2006-A-10)
关键词
人口郊区化
经济
模型
population suburhanization
economy
model
