摘要
目的 研究香港艾滋病病毒（HIV）感染者的流行规律和特征.方法 引用流行病学数学模型SI,用非线性最小二乘法把HIV感染者的数据与数学模型进行曲线拟合.结果 研究出香港HIV感染者累计数的变化规律、流行病曲线和传染率.结论 回顾性地研究了香港1987～2004年HIV感染者的累计数变化为流行病SI模型规律,其特征是,发病高峰期约为2002～2004年,HIV整个流行时间大约50年左右,预测2005年HIV感染者累计数为2 733人左右.
Objective To study the epidemiological patterns of HIV infection prevalent in HongKong. Method The epidemiological patterns of HIV infection in HongKong were analyzed with a mathematic model Sl by changing its initial condition, which was used to test the related data. Results The changeable patterns of susceptible accumulative numbers of HIV infection in HongKong and the epidemiological curves and the curve of infection velocity were obtained. Conclusion The epidemic pattern of HIV infection in Hongkong and local infection velocity from 1987 to 2004 were well described using the epidemic model SI,An accumulation of 2 733 cases of HIV infection will be predicted in the year of 2005.The epidemic peak occurred in 2002 to 2004 and the overall HIV epidemic will last for 50 years approximately.
出处
《中国艾滋病性病》
CAS
2006年第2期133-135,156,共4页
Chinese Journal of Aids & STD
关键词
香港艾滋病
数学模型
流行规律
HIV in HongKong
Epidemiological pattern
Mathematic model
