摘要
文章基于中国1998～2004年的宏观数据，较为严密地利用协整检验、脉冲响应与方差分解等宏观计量方法，分析了不同货币政策工具对宏观经济变量影响的差异性。结果表明：无论长期还是短期，信贷总量对固定资产投资的正向影响显著，对股票市场则有负向影响；而货币供应量在长期或短期对股票市场有显著的正向影响，长期对固定资产投资有正向影响，短期对固定资产投资则有负向影响。这也从侧面印证了我国虚拟经济与实体经济背离。
Based on the macroscopic data from the year 1998 to 2004 in China, this paper strictly uses macroscopic calculating methods such as co-integration test, impulse response and variance decomposition to make an analysis on the difference which various monetary policy tools affect the macroeconomic variables. The result indicates that, regardless of long term or short term, the total quantity of credit and loan has a positive significance influence to fixed asset investment, yet has a negative influence to stock market; the currency supply has a strongly positive influence to stock market in either long run or short run, and it affects fixed asset investment positively in a long run and negatively in a short run, It verifies the departure between hypothesized economy and entity economy from a side aspect in China.
出处
《统计与信息论坛》
2006年第2期93-98,共6页
Journal of Statistics and Information
关键词
货币传导机制
货币供应量
信贷总量
monetary policy transmission mechanism
currency supply
total quantity of credit and loan
