摘要
选取山东省资料年代较长的86个地面测站1961年-2004年日平均气温、最高和最低资料，计算历年日平均气温≥0℃、≥10℃积温和〈0℃负积温，以厦无霜冻终、初日变化，深人研究山东省热量资源对气候变暖的响应及其对农业生产的影响。结果表明：1987年～2004年比1961年～1986年的平均气温明显增高，尤以最低气温增幅最大，这说明最低气温的变化比最高气温的变化更敏感。山东省气候变暖主要来自最低气温升高的贡献；冬季升温幅度大于夏季，日平均气温≥0℃、≥10℃积温增多，无霜冻终日提前、初日推后，无霜冻期天数增多，〈0℃负积温绝对值明显减少。山东省20世纪80年代后期气候明显变暖，热量资源增加，对冬季大棚蔬菜等设施农业的生产有利，喜温作物面积扩大，复种指数提高；同时，干旱发生的机率加大，病虫等越冬存活率上升，防止难度加大。气候变暖对山东省农业影响是利弊并存。
Accumulated daily mean temperature ≥0℃, ≥ 10℃ and negative accumulated temperature 〈 0℃ were collected to analyze the response of thermal resource to climate warming and the impact of climate warming on agricultural production based on data from 86 observations from 1961 to 2004 in Shandong province of China, which include mean monthly temperature, the highest temperature, and the lowest temperature. The results show that mean monthly temperature, the highest temperature, the lowest temperature and accumulated temperature ≥0℃ and ≥ 10℃ from 1987 to 2004 were significantly higher than that of the year from 1961 to 1986, especially the increment of the lowest temperature increased significantly and the increment in winter was greater than that in summer, so the lowest temperature rising played a major role on climate warming in Shandong province of China. The absolute value of negative accumulated temperature 〈 0℃ reduced obviously. The latest frost date advanced 0.3d per year and the first frost date delayed 0.2d per year, so the frost-free period extended 0.5d per year. As the trends of climate change appeared warming since the late 1980s in Shandong province of China, heat resource increased, planting areas of thermophilic crops and green house vegetable were expanded, greenhouse vegetables produced in 1981 were only 76.4 hm^2, and in 1994 developed to 2.4 × 10^4hm^2, in 1997 achieved 40 × 10^4 hm^2 , in 2002 reached 73 × 10^4 hm^2 , accounting for 34 percent of the entire province＇ s vegetable farming area and 40 percent of national total greenhouse vegetable farming area. The area of direct seeding summer corn expanded unceasingly. The entire area was 120.4 × 10^4hm^2 in the 1960s, 205.3 × 10^4 hm^2 in the 1970s, 224.0 × 10^4hm^2 in the 1980s and 260.9 × 10^4hm^2 in the 1990s .The multiple cropping index increased unceasingly, which was 1.53 in the 1960s, 1.63 in the 1970s, 1.65 in the 1980s, 1.71 in the 1990s and 1.69 from 2001 to 2004. The multiple cropping indexes from 1987 to 2004 were 12 percent higher than that from 1961 to 1986. On the other hand, when the climate turns warm, the soil moisture evaporation intensifies and the frequency of drought occurrence increases; it reduced the mortality rate of winter sickness egg （cocoon） and increased its survival quantity, so it is easy to cause plant diseases, increases the preventing and controlling difficulty, and such situation is obvious in the winter wheat and cotton farming area. Consequently, there are both advantages and disadvantages of climate warming to the agriculture in Shandong province.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第1期163-168,共6页
Resources Science
基金
山东省科学技术攻关计划项目"山东省名特优果树产品GIS区划研究"(编号:031060113)
关键词
气候变暖
影响
农业
山东省
Climate warming
Impact
Agriculture
Shandong Province
