摘要
根据 1 958～ 1 997年中国 31 0个气象站的月平均最高、最低气温 ,月平均降水量 ,日照时数等气象参数分析了中国气候的背景特征。用 3个大气环流模型 ,即 Had CM2、 CGCM1、ECHAM4来模拟未来中国气候变化的情景。同时 ,建立未来气候变化的 6种方案。最后 ,根据3个 GCMs模拟的结果 ,利用国际应用系统分析研究所 (IIASA)发展并改进的农业生态地带模型 (AEZ)评估气候变化对中国农业生产的影响。评估主要集中于气候变化对不同区域复种指数、可耕种土地面积、潜在粮食产量及其土地生产潜力的影响。
Though analyze the potential impacts of global climate change on China's agriculture, the meaningful reference for China's agriculture in the future can be shown. First, according to the historical meteorological data from 310 climatological stations during 1958~1997, the baseline climate in China is analyzed. Then, three general circulation models, i.e., HadCM2, CGCM1 and ECHAM4 are chosen and meanwhile six climate change scenarios constructed. Three models above are used to simulate China's climate changes under different scenarios for three periods 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Under three model runs, air temperature is expected to increase in all regions of China. For example, under HadCM2 GX scenario, annual mean air temperature will increase 1.5℃, 2.5℃ and 3.8℃ in 2020s, 2050s, 2080s respectively. In addition, the increasing magnitude of air temperature in high latitude area is larger than that in low latitude area, and in inland area larger than that in coastal area. Finally, based on three GCMs results, an explicit geographic model, i.e., the AEZ model developed and improved at IIASA, is applied to assess the impacts of climate change on China's agricultural land productivity. The impact assessment mainly focuses on the changes of multi cropping index, land productivity, arable land area and total potential cereal production. The findings show: (1) The average magnitude of increase in multi cropping index is larger in the southwest, central and north of China than that in the northwest and south of China. (2) Due to climate change, the increasing temperature and rainfall in the northeast, northwest and plateau of China has a positive influence on their arable land area and total potential cereal production. Conversely, the increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall in the southeast, central and southwest of China has a negative influence on their arable land area and potential cereal production. For whole China, arable land area is projected to increase in a new climate condition. The changing scope of arable land area varies from 2 5% to 16 2% under irrigated and rain fed condition, and from 2 3% to 18 0% under rain fed condition. (3) Climate change affects land productively in northeastern China positively. However, it has a negative influence on land productively in southwestern China and Tibet. On the average, climate change affects land productivity in China negatively. The decreasing scope changes from 1.5% to 7.0% under irrigated and rain fed condition, and from 1.1% to 12.6% under rain fed condition.
出处
《地理学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2000年第2期129-138,共10页
Acta Geographica Sinica
基金
"九五"国家重点科技攻关计划!( 96-92 0 -1 3 )
国际应用系统分析研究所( IIASA)"1 999青年科学家夏季计划"资助!( YSSP1 999)&&
关键词
气候变化
大气环流模型
农业生产
气温
降水
Global climate change
General Circulation Model
Agro Ecological Zoning
Land productivity
China
