摘要
本文运用资产组合模型和美国的宏观经济数据说明,美国的巨额对外净债务使美元面临巨大的贬值压力,美元已经呈现长期贬值态势。美国巨额对外净债务是上世纪80 年代以来持续经常项目赤字累积的结果,因此必须削减经常项目赤字才能降低净债务头寸。而经常项目赤字动态收敛的速度取决于资产收益率、汇率贬值的弹性值和汇率。资产收益率越低,弹性值越大,收敛速度就越快。由于金融市场的反应速度快于商品市场,汇率贬值首先会降低经常项目赤字的收敛速度,而后会加大收敛速度。
Based on a simple portfolio model of exchange rate and current account determination and the US macroeconomic data, this paper explored the causes of the huge net external debt position and showed that the huge net external debt aroused huge depreciation pressure for the US dollar. There existed long-rnn depreciation trend for the US dollar. The US huge net external debt position derived from durative current account deficits since 1980s. So, the US must reduce the huge current account deficits before they can reduce the net external debt position. The dynamic convergence rate of current account deficits determined by the gross rate of return on US assets, trade elasticity value for exchange rate depreciation, the US dollar exchange rate. The lower the gross rate of return on US assets is, the larger the trade elasticity value is, then the sooner the dynamic convergence rate of current account deficits is. However, after the US dollar depreciation, the dynamic convergence rate of current account deficits falls firstly, and accelerates subsequently because financial market＇ s response to price information is sooner than goods market＇ s.
出处
《金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2005年第11期11-17,共7页
Journal of Financial Research
关键词
净对外债务
财富
资产
汇率
经常项目赤字
net external debt, wealth, assets, exchange rate, current account deficits.
