摘要
本文基于2005—2019年130个经济体的样本数据,利用倾向得分匹配和双重差分法(PSM-DID)考察了"一带一路"倡议对沿线国家外部财富中估值效应变动的影响。结果表明:"一带一路"倡议显著改善了沿线国家外部头寸中的估值效应,有助于沿线国家外部财富的升值;机制检验显示"一带一路"倡议通过提升沿线国家权益资产规模和优化结构改善了其外部头寸中的估值效应;异质性分析表明估值效应的改善具有一定的"亲贫"特征,即效应改善对收入处于中高等和中低等、金融发展程度较低、经常账户持续性逆差且在丝绸之路经济带的陆地国家更为显著和稳健。本文的研究为理解"一带一路"倡议功能的发挥提供了新视角,为回应国际层面炮制的"债务陷阱"论提供科学论证,在助力"一带一路"倡议高质量发展的同时,为区域内部成员增强外部调整能力,实现外部财富的保值、增值提供经验依据。
Using the sample data of 130 countries(regions)in 2005-2019,this paper examined the impact of"the Belt and Road"initiative on the external wealth of the countries along the route by introducing PSM-DID method.The results show that"the Belt and Road"initiative has improved the valuation effect in the external positions of the countries along the route significantly,which contributes to the appreciation of the external wealth.Mechanism test shows that"the Belt and Road"initiative improves the valuation effect in the external positions through increasing the equity asset amount of the countries along the route and optimizing the structure.Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the improvement of valuation effects has a certain degree"pro-poverty"characteristics.The improvement in the valuation effect is more significant and robust in the countries with middle-high and middle-low income,lower degree financial development,persistent current account deficit and inland location.The research provides a new perspective for understanding the function of"the Belt and Road"initiative and shows scientific evidence for responding to the"debt trap"theory concocted at the international level.It also provides empirical support for the high-quality development of"the Belt and Road"initiative construction and the strengthening of external adjustments among region members to achieve the preservation and appreciation of external wealth.
作者
杨权
汪青
YANG Quan;WANG Qing
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第7期125-141,共17页
Journal of International Trade
基金
国家社会科学基金“一带一路”建设研究专项“共建‘一带一路’中的债务可持续性问题研究”(19VDL008)
关键词
“一带一路”
外部财富
估值效应
资产结构
"The Belt and Road"Initiative
External Wealth
Valuation Effect
Asset Structure
