摘要
近年来,美联储频繁使用联邦基金利率这一调节货币市场供求关系的重要工具,对美国货币市场的长短期利率以及美国经济产生了复杂的影响。2004年以来,美元短期利率总体走势先抑后扬,而长期利率总体走势先扬后抑。基于美国2005年经济形势以及美联储利率政策回顾与总结,文章预测:美联储将以每次加息25个基点的方式在2005底将联邦基金利率提高到“中性水平”4.2%,10年期国债的收益率将缓慢上涨到5%,长短期利差也将进一步收窄。
In recent years , US federal reserve use federal fund interest rate , the important tool to adjust supply and demand relation of currency market , this has bring complicated influence to long - term and shortterm interest rate of US currency market and US economy . Since 2004 , the main tendency of US short - term interest rate is down first and up last , but long - term interest rate tendency is up first and down last , basing on US economy tendency in 2005 and retrospection and summarization of US federal reserve interest rate policy , the article forecast that will boost federal reserve interest rate to “middle level” 4.2% in late 2005 with method add interest 25 basic point , the income rate to 10- year term national debt will up to 5% slowly , the interest rate difference between long - term and short - term will be more little .
出处
《广西经济管理干部学院学报》
2005年第3期36-42,共7页
Journal of GuangXi Cadres College of Economic and Management
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(NO.04BJL027)。
关键词
美元利率
美联储
走势
US dollar interest rate , US federal reserve , Tendency
