摘要
本文分析了我国利率政策的运行环境、中央银行反应函数与利率调整模式、利率对通货膨胀、产出、储蓄与消费的影响 ,全面论证利率政策的宏观经济效应 ,主要结论如下。第一 ,利率管制、过高的中央银行存贷款利率和金融机构实际负利率构成了利率政策运行环境的三个主要标准化事实 ;第二 ,我国的利率调整属于典型的滞后调整 ,决策时滞约为 6- 1 0个月 ;第三 ,利率对通货膨胀的影响不显著 ;第四 ,实际利率对名义和实际产出的预测能力明显高于其他金融变量 ;第五 ,利率变化对居民的储蓄与消费决策存在显著影响。
This paper empirically analyzes the institutional background of interest rate policy, central bank's reaction function and interest rate adjustment rule, effects of interest rate on inflation, output, saving and consumption, to show the macroeconomic effects of interest rate policy. Conclusions are following. First, interest rate control, over-high central bank rates and negative real deposit and lending rates are three stylized facts. Second, interest rate movement shows a typical lagged adjustment, and the decision lag is 6 to 10 months. Third, interest rate effect on inflation is insignificant. Fourth, real interest rate's anticipation capacity on real and nominal output is higher than other financial variables. And finally, interest rate significantly affects household's saving-consumption decision.
出处
《金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2003年第5期1-13,共13页
Journal of Financial Research
