摘要
对1900年以来印尼爪哇海沟地区发生的8.0级以上地震与川滇地区5.0级以上地震作了统计、对比和分析,并利用跨断层位移流动观测资料,对2004年12月26日印尼苏门答腊西部海域8.7级地震前后,川滇地区的区域构造活动变化进行了分析研究,初步认为:印尼8.7级地震后,川滇地区1～3年内发生7.0级以上地震的可能性不大;1～2年内发生6～7级地震的可能性较大;1年内发生5级以上地震至少两次;纬度27°以南地区可能是未来1年内发震的危险地区,地球自转速度减慢,可能预示川滇地区强震活跃期即将到来.
This paper made a statistical study, compared and analyzed the M≥8 earthquakes in Java trench, Indonesia, and the M≥5 earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnan region, China. The changes in tectonic activities of Sichuan-Yunnan region before and after the M8. 7 Sumatran earthquake of Dec. 26, 2004,were analyzed using cross-fault displacement observations. The preliminary result indicates that after the M8.7 Indonesian earthquake the probability of occurrence of an M〉7 earthquake in Sichuan-Yunnan region within 1-3 years is low, whereas the probability of M6-7 earthquakes within 1-2 years is rather region in the coming year, The slow-down of Earth rotation may indicate that an active period of strong earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnan region is coming.
出处
《大地测量与地球动力学》
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第3期100-104,共5页
Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics
基金
中国地震局"南北地震带地震跟踪"项目
关键词
印尼8.7级地震
爪哇海沟川滇地区
区域构造活动
影响
Indonesian M8.7 earthquake, Java trench, Sichuan-Yunnan region, regional tectonic activity,effect
