摘要
因负荷成分与正常日有较大差异且样本较少,故节假日短期负荷预测精度往往不太理想。通过对节假日负荷特性的分析,考虑到节假日负荷影响主要受负荷自然增长及天气等因素的影响较大,文中采用相似日方法和模糊推理分别预测负荷曲线模式和负荷水平。通过对实际系统负荷进行预测,结果表明预测精度较高,尤其在气象出现较大变化的节假日能够得到较好的预测结果。
It is not desirable for the precision of short term load forecasting during holidays due to the dissimilar load behaviors compared with weekdays and the insufficient samples for normal algorithm. Taking into account the load annual increase and the weather information, which influence the load profile of holidays more, a hybrid method of similar days to obtain scaled load curve and fuzzy inference method to forecast the holiday load level is adopted. The method proposed is implemented in real-time EMS with actual load data. The test results have demonstrated good accuracy especially in weather change days.
出处
《电力系统自动化》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第17期93-97,共5页
Automation of Electric Power Systems
关键词
短期负荷预测
模糊推理
天气信息
节假日
short term load forecasting
fuzzy inference
weather information
holidays
